Edgar Fiedler

Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of recession in the following year is the same for a three-year-old expansion as it is for a five- or six-year-old expansion.

— Edgar Fiedler

Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers - six if one went to Harvard.

— Edgar Fiedler

At some risk of oversimplification, I suggest that the usual reason a business cycle turns into a monster is an overdose of government policy.

— Edgar Fiedler

The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers.

— Edgar Fiedler

If you have to forecast, forecast often.

— Edgar Fiedler

If we're going to forecast the business cycle, surely it is a good idea to know the business cycle. Sounds reasonable, but it's not that easy.

— Edgar Fiedler